Oregon’s Economic Recovery Continues

by John DeCosta, Keller Williams Portland Premiere.

Good article on the Oregon Recovery from the Oregonian. Glad to have people back to work, and home buyers excited again.

We are very busy with many buyers, but always have time for some new listings if you know anyone looking to make a move.

When Scott Cooper drives the highways near Bend, he sees signs that tell him the economy is coming back.

Housing prices were cut almost by half during the recession in central Oregon, and its unemployment rate was among the highest in the nation. Even now, the high desert still faces some of the highest jobless levels in Oregon.

Today, though, it’s the roadside signs that have Cooper talking.

Contractors are posting help-wanted signs and are once again looking for help. The housing industry is turning around, and construction jobs are, too.

“They’re going to great lengths to find people,” said Cooper, director of NeighborImpact, a Bend-area nonprofit that provides food, housing and energy assistance.

Oregon employers added new jobs in October at the strongest pace in nearly 20 years, according to a report released Tuesday by the Employment Department. The state gained a collective 9,900 jobs, all rooted in the private sector.

But even the largest monthly employment gain since August 1995 could not bring down Oregon’s elevated unemployment rate. The measure has barely budged from 7.0 percent in the past year and is well above the national rate of 5.8 percent.

Economists say the holding pattern may not be such a discouraging sign. Word spreads as hiring improves, and more people start looking for jobs. Some of those job seekers may have temporarily given up looking for work during the aftermath of the recession. Others may have recently graduated from school or moved to Oregon.

“Traditionally, the Oregon economy has done well when we’re both growing jobs and attracting people,” said Tim Duy, an economist at the University of Oregon. “Those two things tend to feed off each other.”

Check both things off for October.

Employers added nearly 10,000 jobs, triple the recent average. Three relatively high-paying industries — business services, manufacturing and healthcare — added at least 2,000 jobs apiece. The gains appeared to erase a fall slowdown. In September, Oregon gained just a net 800 jobs.

There is a caveat. The hiring figures are estimates and are often revised in subsequent months. Duy said that’s especially important to keep in mind when the data swings from a particular weak month to a strong one. Some of those spikes may balance out in the long run.

Regardless, taking the data as a whole for recent months tells a positive story, he said.

Adam Morris, who owns the Portland office of the sales recruiting firm West Coast Careers, said he has noticed businesses feel more confident. Sales jobs are often an early beacon of hiring trends, because companies tend to hire cash-generating positions first, he said.

“Ever since 2008, there has been this fear in the marketplace,” he said. “We’ve been waiting for it to get better and better. But slowly and surely it’s been happening.”

The state lost nearly 140,000 jobs in the recession that officially ended in 2010. Although the recovery since has not been steady, Oregon now is left with just 5,700 jobs to make up to reach the pre-recession peak.

Cooper said that already some Bend-area businesses are having trouble finding the employees they need, and say that fewer people are applying for available jobs than in the past.

Thirty-six miles away in Prineville, it took four weeks for Ochoco Manufacturing Corp. to find and hire an automotive electrician. Finding qualified and experienced candidates is always tough for the company that makes water tankers, said Caryl Jamison, vice president and chief financial officer. “We have a limited labor force for the type of workers we need.”

Oregon’s labor pool is expanding. Since October 2013, roughly 47,000 people have started working or looking for work in the state. The share of adults in the labor force, although near historic lows, has climbed from 61.1 to 61.8 percent over the same time frame.

The data doesn’t show where those people are landing.

Anecdotally, Morris said his recruitment office receives emails every day from people looking to move to Portland and inquiring about job opportunities.

But Cooper also notices that people are starting to flow into Bend, including some who are returning after they were forced to move away during the recession.

“They left because they had to,” he said, “and they’re coming back because they can.”

— Molly Young